Destabilization of situation in some regions may be a result of uncontrolled demographic processes or negative changes in the natural environment. This favours development of all kinds of ideological and religious extremism which motivates some states and terrorist organisations’ actions. The safety of states will be more and more imperilled by sophisticated asymmetric threats. In this context are emphasized the revival of the employment of the easiest, classic means and ways of warfare, relative simplicity of use of industry facilities or civilization products as targets or means of assault, as well as relatively easy access to mass destruction weapons. This enlarges the range of possibilities offered to parties that apply asymmetric combat methods and it increases probability of relatively high numbers of casualties in future conflicts. It is assumed that asymmetric threats will be carried out more and more frequently by states and organisations that want to achieve their political goals through destabilisation of the international situation.
As NATO maintains its capability to conduct operations under Article V, it will also to an increasing degree become involved in military solution of conflicts that occur beyond the Euro-Atlantic region. The future operations will be more and more dominated by the political factor. The operations will be monitored by the international public opinion and organisations judging observance of the international rules by the sides of conflicts. To an increasing degree, the Alliance will also be under pressure to gain public support for its military actions and to achieve swift success and end conflicts. This will force the alliance to carry out the future operations in a fast and efficacious manner.
Future missions
Majority of the Alliance’s future operations will be conducted beyond the Euro-Atlantic region. Besides high intensity combat operations, including anti-terrorist operations, these will be demonstrative and preventive operations, peace enforcement missions, peacekeeping missions and stabilising operations, as well as humanitarian aid assistance in the wake of catastrophes and natural disasters. In principle, they will be led by allied group formations of joint services. The conclusions arising from the deployment of armed forces in present conflicts show that it may be necessary to carry out simultaneously one or more of the above-mentioned operation types during one operation. It is assumed that in the future operations the intensive warfare phase will be relatively short, whereas the post-conflict phase, the stabilisation and reconstruction will become longer. In this phase, prior to establishment of the local authorities, the majority of civilian support tasks will be carried out by armed forces, especially by special combat and logistic support formations (engineering, medical and CIMIC).
A distinctive feature of future NATO-led operations will be participation of countries non-members of the Alliance in the operations, and the presence of international organisations (UN, OSCE, EU), non-governmental organisations and local civilian authorities in the theatre of military operations. A characteristic factor of future operations will be the NATO’s maximal use of products of the progress in science and technology, most of all in the areas of computer science, biotechnology, robotization and space technologies. The technological development in construction of information acquisition and exchange systems, precision weapons and troops transportations assets will provide a real picture of the situation and make appropriate operation planning and execution possible. Furthermore, it will improve the decision-making process and allow to keep its high pace as well as contribute to reduction of losses.
Armed forces of the future
Appropriate structure, equipment and training should guarantee effectiveness of the allied forces in any types of operations, including those conducted with the use of mass destruction weapons and in the face of asymmetric threats. The structure of the forces and their combat capabilities should allow for adaptation of the forces to specific operation conditions. It is also important that the allied forces should be able to redeploy on a strategic and operational scale and to conduct long-lasting operations of any kind in any geographical conditions. The operational capabilities created on the basis of the most advanced technologies as well as application of the capabilities have to ensure an advantage over a potential opponent with regard to information acquisition and exchange, decision-making process support, precise targeting, combat support and logistic support at every stage of the operation. At the same time, it is stressed that the special character of post-conflict missions requires an increased number of engineering, signal, medical, logistic and CIMIC support elements within the NATO force structure.
The participation of non-members of the Alliance in the Alliance’s operations and the presence of civilian organisations in the theatre of operation are going to make it necessary to improve the interoperability with the forces of the countries both with regard to decision-making processes, operation tactics and compatibility of some weapon systems. It will also bring about the need for an effective military and civilian co-operation.
The political and military factors enforce a different approach philosophy towards planning and operation. It is contained in the concept described as the “Effect Based Approach – (EBO)”, according to which enemy is to be perceived in a comprehensive manner as a system composed of numerous subsystems connected by reciprocal relations. According to the concept, achievement of political and military goals in NATO operations will depend on appropriate determination and then elimination or weakening of those of the enemy’s systems and relations that are decisive for the enemy’s effective operation.
Carrying out operations based on this concept involves reaching strategic targets of an operation starting with the pre-crisis phase and ending with stabilization operation. In the combat phase, the operation will be focused on creation of effects that will shape the opponent’s perception of the situation according to NATO’s wish, weaken the opponent’s command and information exchange system, neutralize his combat capability and break his will to fight. This concept brings out the basic importance of the qualitative factors in future operations. They will provide a decisive advantage thanks to the efficient combination of information management, operation speed and targeting precision. It is estimated that the implementation of the concept in the process of troop preparation and operational deployment will allow to keep high operation speed, use smaller forces, reduce losses and consequently reach the goals of the operation.
Reaching operational goals by NATO depends among others on the Alliance’s necessity to gain informational and decision-making advantage at every stage of operation. The basis for construction of advantage in these areas will both be adaptation of the command structures to requirements of future operations and acquisition of modern, mutually linked land, air or sea- based platforms of technical systems of information exchange, intelligence, target tracking and situation imagery. These systems should ensure continuity of information acquisition, exchange and distribution at every stage of operation.
Gaining this advantage will depend among others on the Alliance’s ability to operate in networked information environment. This is connected with suitable organisational preparation, suitable equipment and training. There is a need to create information networks connecting armed forces, civilian governmental and non-governmental organisations as well as other civilian structures in an operation theatre. Gaining by the Alliance’s forces the abilities decisive for informational and decision-making advantage will allow to conduct operations with even more confidence and freedom than hitherto, which will be possible as a result of good orientation in the operation theatre.
A fundamental precondition for the NATO to become successful in future operations will be acquisition of technical and organizational capabilities to effectively use military and non-military warfare means. The following capabilities of allied forces will be decisive: high operational readiness, force mobility and flexibility allowing for adaptation of organisation structure, weapon systems and tactics to the demands of the planned operations. Efficiency of future operations requires that allied forces attain and develop capabilities to execute tasks as multinational joint forces and cooperate with armed forces of countries that are not members of the Alliance. A special importance will be attached to appropriate coordination of activities with civilian organisations.
Therefore, the structure of the allied forces, their combat capabilities and training should guarantee an effective civilian and military cooperation at every stage of an operation.
Long-lasting expeditionary operations
The efficiency of NATO’s military response to threats occurring beyond the Euro-Atlantic area will depend on the allied forces’ ability to swiftly redeploy on a strategic and operational scale, to conduct long-lasting operations and to ensure force protection. These capabilities will be a basic factor determining the organization structure of formations, their equipment and weapons, logistic support system and training.
During operations conducted far away from home bases, the Alliance’s forces will have to be provided with suitable logistic support. It is assumed that in the initial phase the forces should be logistically self-sufficient due to the lack of logistic support in this phase of operation. In subsequent phases the support will be provided by an integrated logistic system which encompasses cooperating multinational logistic elements of the services. The integrated logistic system should make it possible to monitor the technical condition of the equipment, inform about needed for spare parts and materials, as well as ensure their distribution and effectively use civilian support. It is assumed that the integration of the supply system will be achieved thanks to the increased compatibility of the technical equipment, interchangeability of spare parts and materials, the improved endurance thereof, as well as easy technical maintenance. It is assumed that due to various types of operations and necessity to carry out tasks in post-conflict periods, it will be important to define appropriate quantitative proportions with regard to combat, combat and logistic support formations.
Transformation of the Alliance’s forces in the next decade should be focused on actions that will enable NATO’s forces to achieve the aforesaid capabilities and work out a concept of the operational use of the forces. The usefulness of the aforesaid operational concepts and newly attained capabilities of the forces will be assessed during studies, analyses, research works and exercises conducted at the political, strategic and operational level, for instance with new rotations of NATO Response Force. Next, the concepts will be retransformed in the process of defence planning into goal and requirement proposals to the armed forces. Consequently, they will be presented in the Alliance’s operational planning directives and implemented into training programmes of NATO’s forces.
By Cmdr Artur Bilski
